ES is more predictable than forex

1)buy and sell at S/R in previous swing
look at the chart below of ES.the green lines were draw in previous trading days. See ES bounced off them?


the easy to trade ES is to buy & sell at these pre-marked area to give you best R/R.



2)Trade what you are sure.
ES is more predictable But i didnt trade what is easier,i traded GBP/JPY. My bias is short as stock market dropped.But the the correlation between jpy strength didnt show up. That's a lesson to share.


Two possible reasons:
=risk unwinding almost done. And JPY need a correction lower. in this case we will see stock market down together with US$,need more days to confirm this development.
=month end+friday repostion


I'm still short GJ with average cost 12910,160pips under water(3.5% paper lose),i will waiting for sunday asian open to decide to cut or hold due to the reason No.2.



3)Back to business


sentiment remains extremely fickle and the pessimism that returned by week's end may dissipate as quickly as it returned and traders will need to remain flexible. i will only be more bearish we close below 800 at least by H4 candle.


ES support are 818/811/800/784/741
ES resistance are 836/848/858/865/873




$ index are not far away from strong resistance,a daily close above 8680,we will see 89.20. With euro been sold so aggesively, i think we are very likely to test that area.


EU may test the low of 12300-12400 again below a corerction higher in this case.Interestingly EG close below the former support 8837 area,we will see a test of 86XX area if that's not a bear trap.


10yr bond close below strong support 12328,then lower we go.119 may coming. What does that mean? weaken US$ or higher gold? For next week i think we shall eye on more risk aversion in short term and be flexible.

ES testing 850 for direction,US$ at resistance

us$ index bounced off 84 as expected and now we are at resistance 85.87 area,need the PA to lead us the way forward,a small pullback shall be healthy for us$ strength.We need us$ to stay aboe 85.87 to see more downsides of stock market.

ES gave up most of yesterday's gain and tested 849 support and so far this area holds.wait for tomorrow's GDP number to see whether we will up or down,850 is pivotal.

support are 842/832,resistance are 857/866/873. i'm flat now with 1% gain in 2 days.

usd$ index may test 84 & oil failed to test 48?

more gain in euro & gbp is expected. euro shall test minor resistant 1.33

oil failed on 1st test of 48 resistance which was mentione in my previous post,support shall be around 4640/4400/4100.

outlook next week

1)USD strength may be setting up for a reversal,so as the stock market.

The fundamental environment certainly warrants risk aversion, but upcoming developments may yet inspire a recovery in sentiment. The key events to watching are the progress of the US fiscal stimulus package and the impending second round of TARP capital allocations. As prospects for their passage/implementation increase, both have the potential to fortify investor sentiment.

EUR/USD, a daily close above the 1.3050/3100 area would suggest scope for a rebound back to 1.3500/50 area. The USD index also posted a significant long-legged doji on daily candles suggesting a downside reversal, and a daily close below 85.80 points to weakness back to the 84.00 area initially.

2)stock market may see a bear market rally.

If TARP helps to remove the toxic assets off their balance sheet in to a "bad" bank as rumored,we could see a rebounded in banking sectors to lead a BEAR market rally.Financials are so oversold while we still above Nov low,which leave to being favor of long side play in coming Feb.

ESH9 Level to watch:

853area, a daily close above 853 may take us to 870-875 area. Other minus levels are 834/843.

supports are 818/808/800.

3)watch out other market for indication of market direction.

Crude close strongly on friday and likely to test 48-50 area next week.

Gold is also breakout to test a multi-months TL,we expect it will fail on more risk taking.900 is the level to watch closely.

10yrs notes close to important level 123.30, a daily close below will support our view of risk taking coming back.

next week plan: favor buying dip in risk assets.

long euro,GBP against dollar and jpy.

shorting gold on failing break above 900.

we need to break 797-800 area to see Nov low

ES Nov low is 0.382 extension of drop from 942-797,Nov low is in the card if we close below 797.

And we need to break 1107-1115 area for NQ to confirm we are testing nov lows.

My bias is short on any pop in ES,first resistance around 830/853.but be awear we may still in a range market unless we break 797 and 1107.

clear my short positiion @836

i clear my positon@836,ES may test 830 or even 818 area before a sizeable bounce.my plan is short after the possible bounce to 852-856 area. If market continues to tank,shall follow to short on clean break below 818.

ES testing 852-856 strong support area

with worse than expected retail sales data this morning,ES gap down open below the strong support area 852-856,we need a daily close below it to see more downside movement,support level are 830/822/815,we will test 785/740 after a daily close below 815.

UJ is testing 89 area, a test of 87 area is in the card if a daily close below 8850.we need uj to close below 89 to confirm ES's close below 850.

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us 10yrs note are testing 12680 area resistant,we need it to close above that to see more stock weakness.stay tune.

forex mkt &ES future

UJ need to break down 90 area to see more gains which is 38.2% RE of last move up from 87.17 to 94.59
























EJ closed below 123 area,a test of 119 or even 117 is quite possible next week. First resistance around 12550 area(H4 100/200hr EMA)













ES need to close below 887 to see more down side which is H1 TL support and 61.8% RE of 852-942
minor support around 875-878 area and major support 852 area need to be cracked to see a real sell off.
stil hold under water ES short with average price@875,TP at 741.